Withresponsesfrom10,000familieswithchildrenunder15yearsoldin10provincial-levelregions,thesurveyfoundthat53.3percentoffamilieshavenodesireforasecondchild.Indevelopedregionsandhighly-educatedgroups,thenumberreachesevenhigher,to62percent.Education,medicalresources,healthcareandthelivingenvironmentarethekeyfactorsformostparentswhenconsideringasecondchild.
ToHave,orNottoHave?
Ms.Zhang,inher30s,haslivedinBeijingforover5years.Sheandherhusbandbothworkforstate-ownedcompanies,andtheyowna60-square-meterapartmentinagoodschooldistrictnearthenorthfourthringroad.Theironlydaughterhasjustenteredkindergarten.
Themomentthenewpolicywasintroduced,Zhangwasdeeplymoved.“Thereshouldn’tbeanydebate,”sheassertsseriously.“Formydaughter’ssake,Ishouldgiveherasisterorbrother.Onechildistoolonely.”However,afterseveralroundsoffamilydiscussions,herfirmresolveandfierypassionweredispersed.
Themajorobstaclesarerelatedtofinanceandeducation.ThecouplehadplannedtorelocatetoabiggerapartmentsothatMs.Zhang’sparentscouldmoveinwiththemtohelptakecareofthenewborn.However,assoonasthenewpolicywasimplemented,thepriceoftheirdreamhouseskyrocketedoutoftheirpricerange.Theaveragepriceofhousesinthecommunityhasrisento80,000yuanpersquaremeterbecauseofthegoodschoolsnearby.Then,thestrugglebecameevenmoreintense.Iftheyfoundabiggerhouseinthesameareatostayinthedesirableschooldistrict,itwouldcauseintensefinancialpressure.Tosecureanacceptablehomeelsewhere,theywouldhavetomovefartherfromdowntown,sacrificetop-shelfeducationandmakeamoreexhaustingcommuteeveryday.Thecouplehaslittleconfidenceintheeducationalresourcesofthesuburbs.Thus,thesecondchildplanwasshelved.
AresidentofBaoding,HebeiProvince,Ms.Li,inher40s,doesn’thavethesamefinancialconcerns.Partlybecausetheyliveinasecond-tiercity,sheandherhusbandhavepaidofftheirmortgageandworrylittleaboutcoveringdailyexpenses.Thecouplehaslongdreamedofhavingasecondchild,butwhenthepolicyfinallyarrived,Ms.Libegantobehesitant.
Firstofall,shecouldbetoooldforasecondchildatthispoint.Litookthatconcerntodoctors,andtheirresponseswereconsistent:theriskofcomplicationsrisessharplyinoldermothers.
Still,herparamountconcernisbalancingcareerdevelopmentwithchildcare.Ms.Liandherhusbandcametothecityataveryyoungage.Afteryearsofstruggleandhardwork,bothhavebecomethebackboneoftheirrespectivecompanies.Becauseoffrequentbusinesstripsandbusyschedules,theyalreadyregularlyleavetheirsonwithhisgrandma.Asthegrandmagetsolder,nootherpotentialhelphasemerged,andnewbornsrequirethemostcare.ForLi,thechoiceisbetweenadreamcareerandasecondchild.“Ihavebeenseriouslywantingasecondchildforalongtime,butnowthatIcan,Idon’thavetheresolve,”sheadmits.“IfIdidhaveanotherchild,Iwouldprobablyhavetoquitmyjob.AndevenifImanagedtosavethejob,Icouldn’tkeepmycurrentposition.ConsideringallthehardworkandstrugglesIhaveenduredoversomanyyears,IwanttorealizemyowndreamsandbeallthatIcanbe.Quittingmyjobwouldmeanabigcutinincome.It’snotarealisticoptionconsideringourcostoflivingcoupledwithsavingforretirement.”
BeijingnativeMs.LiuseemsluckierthanZhangandLionpaper.Withoutsignificantobstacles,sheisabouttogivebirthtohersecondbaby.However,theprocesswasstillnotassmoothasLiuexpected.“Beijing’smedicalresourcesfallshortofdemand,especiallythoserelatedtotheobstetricandpediatricdepartments,”shereports.“Wehadtofighttoregistertogivebirthatthenearesthospital.Everyprenatalvisitwasanexhaustingtrekthroughahugecrowd.Thenmysongotsick,andmylifesuddenlyfellapart.BeijingChildren’sHospitalisconstantlyovercrowded.Seeingadoctorafteronlythreehoursofwaitingwasconsideredquitelucky.”Ms.Liuadmitsthatbeneathherjoyandhappinessbroughtbytheexpectationofnewlife,shehasbeguntoworryaboutwhethershecantakecareoftwochildren.
AkindergarteninShanghai.Duringeachyear’srecruitingseason,primaryandmiddleschoolsandkindergartenshireteachersinlargenumbers,withkindergartenteachersinparticularlyhighdemand.ICReadyPublicSupport
Bytheendof2013,Chinahadalreadylaunchedaselectivetwo-childpolicybenefitingcouplesinwhicheitherparentwasanonlychild.Twoyearslater,thepolicywasexpandedtoallmarriedcouples.Theimportantmoveaimedtooptimizethedemographicstructure,increaselaborsupplyandeasepressureontheagingpopulationinanewsituation.
However,oneyearafteritwasimplemented,thelong-awaiteduniversaltwochildpolicyseemstohavefallenwellshortofitsprojectedgoals.OnNovember26,2016,theNationalHealthandFamilyPlanningCommissionannouncedataBeijingforumonpopulationthatthecountrywouldwelcomemorethan17.5millionnewbornsin2016.Thatfigureisonly950,000greaterthanthe16.55millionin2015and630,000morethanthe16.87millionin2014.Sointermsofboostingthebirthrate,theuniversaltwo-childpolicyhasnotimprovedmuchonthepreviousselectivetwo-childpolicy.
Asforthereasons,MuGuangzong,aprofessorattheInstituteofPopulationResearchatPekingUniversity,positsthatalthoughtheuniversaltwo-childpolicycameintoeffectonJanuary1,2016,thefertilitypotentialoftheproductivepopulationstillneedstimetorespond.Currently,peopleinmanyregionsofChinahavebeenfacingarangeoffactorslikelatemarriage,latemotherhood,lowfertilitydesireandincreasingcostofliving.Especiallyinrecentyears,consideringincomelevels,housingcost,commutingtimeandotherfactors,ithasbecomeevenharderforpeopletotransformadesireforchildrenintoreality.Manyyoungparentshavebecomefearfulofhavingasecondchild.
“Thefundamentalreasonisthatthecurrentpublicservicesandresourcesallocationsystemhasn’tadjustedtoservethenewdemographicandfertilitysituation,”Musays.Theuniversaltwo-childpolicystilldoesn’talloweveryfamilytohaveasmanybabiesastheywant,butmoresupportivepublicpoliciesareclearlyonthehorizon.
“Thecurrentsocialresourcessupplyandoperatingsystemshavelongbeendesignedforthedemographicstructureofonefamily,onechild,”explainsDuJie,vicepresidentoftheChineseWomen’sResearchSociety.Sheaddsthatonlywhenkeyproblemsrelatedtopublicservicesaresolvedwillyoungparentsfeelliketheyhaveachoice.
Onmethodstoimprovepublicservices,theACWFpresentedthreesuggestionstothegovernment:First,adjustbasicpublicservicesystemsandincreaseallocationstomedicine,healthcareandeducationalresources.Second,clarifythesupervisionanddevelopmentofnurseryinstitutionsfornewbornstotoddlers.Third,improvethecurrentparentalandfamilyeducationbyusingguidancestationstoinnovateandenrichmethodsoffamilyeducation.