AttheAstanasummitoftheShanghaiCooperationOrganization(SCO)in2017,IndiaandPakistanbecamefullmembersoftheorganization.ThedevelopmentmarkedtheSCO鈥檚firstexpansionsinceitsestablishmentin2001.
AlleyesareontheeasternChinesecoastalcityofQingdaoinShandongProvince,whichwillhostthisyear鈥檚summitoftheSCO,theworld鈥檚mostpopulousregionalbloc,fromJune9to10.ThiswillbethefirstSCOsummitsincePakistanandIndiabecamefullmembersofthebodyatitsAstanasummitinKazakhstanlastyear.
TheSCO鈥檚eightmemberstatesnowincludeChina,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Russia,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,IndiaandPakistan.Thestateshostnearlyhalfoftheworld鈥檚populationandcreateover20percentofglobalGDP.
OpportunityandChallenges
RelationsbetweenPakistanandIndiahaveremainedtensesincetheirindependencein1947.Afterfightingthreewars,theyhavecomeclosetomorewarsseveraltimesinrecentdecades.BothcountriesaremembersoftheSouthAsianAssociationforRegionalCooperation(SAARC),butthatregionalblochasfailedtoachievesubstantialprogress,preciselybecausethepaircanhardlysharethestageattheforum.
Withthisbaggageintow,PakistanandIndiahavebeenadmittedtotheSCO,whichisconsideredacohesivebody.AnewfoundchallengefortheSCOistocalmtwoquarrelingcountriesandfosterawin-winoutcome.
WehavealreadyseenmodestprogressbybothcountriestoresolvetheirbilateralissuesandcontributetoSCOgoalsinregionaldevelopment.Theusualcross-borderfiringincidentsalongtheLineofControl(LoC)andoccasionalexchangeofharshwordscontinuedlastyear.Usually,onlyaftertheDirectorGeneralsofMilitaryOperations(DGMOs)getonthephonetogetherareissuesdeescalated.
Somesymbolicprogress,however,hascometopass.Whilemaintainingaggressivestancesagainsteachotheronthesurface,thetwowillparticipateinajointmilitaryexercisetocounterterrorisminRussiainSeptemberundertheSCO鈥檚2018PeaceMission.However,realprogresswillbeeasingtensionsandlaunchingbilateralcooperationonallmatters,tradeinparticular.
IfwemergetheSCOwiththeChina-proposedBeltandRoadInitiative,SCOmemberstateswillfurtherimprovecross-borderlogisticscondi-tionsandincreasecapacity.Somemajorjointprojectshavebeencompletedintheregion,includinghighways,railwaysandpowerplants.Accordingtoofficialfigures,Chinahasbuilt21economicandtradecooperationzoneswithinSCOcountriessofar.
RegionalCooperation
ItisyettobeseenhowIndiaandPakistanwillbehaveasfullmembersoftheSCO.
ThisisanelectionyearinPakistan.WhentheSCOsummittakesplace,thetenureofPakistan鈥檚currentgovernmentledbyPakistanMuslimLeague-NwillendandaprovisionalgovernmentwillgointoplacebeforeanewgovernmenttakeschargeinAugust.ElectionresultswilldeterminehowtieswithIndiatakeshape.ForeignandsecuritypoliciesinPakistanareunderthearmy鈥檚controlwhichseesIndiaasanenemy.AhungparliamentmaynottilttowardspeacewithIndiaasPrimeMinisterNawazSharifdidafterhewonthe2013generalelection
However,ifSharif鈥檚partyreturnstopowerwithmajorityinparliament,theSCObannerwillbeagodsendtotheciviliangovernmenttomakepeacewithIndiaandopenbilateralortransittrade.
Regionallyspeaking,itisinChina鈥檚interesttoreturnpeacetoAfghani-stan,whichhasobserverstatusintheeight-memberbody.Itisstillplaguedbybombblaststhatcausemassivecasualtiesondailybasis.ButPakistanandIndiadistrusteachotherontheirrespectiverolesinAfghanistan.Forinstance,India鈥檚investmentanddevelopmentgoalsinAfghanistanareseenasstrategicinroadsbyPakistan鈥檚army.Twosoldiers,onefromIndiaandtheotherfromPakistan,shakehandsataflag-loweringceremonyontheborderofthetwocountries.CNSFurthermore,neitherthefour-memberQuadrilateralCoordinationGroup(QCG)mechanism,whichincludesChina,theU.S.,AfghanistanandPakistan,norbilateralframeworkundertheAfghanistan-PakistanActionPlanforPeaceandSolidarity(APAPPS),hasseenmuchprogress.
WilltheSCOBringPakistanandIndiaCloser?
Inshort,yesandno.
TheciviliangovernmentandmilitaryinPakistanarenotonthesamepageonhowtodealwithIndia.Someanalystsbelievethatthearmy鈥檚India-centricstrategyisanattempttosecuremorebudgetaryresourcesinthepoorcountry.CivilianslargelywanttodealwithIndiaasaneighborwithwhichtheyhaveissuesbutstillcarryonasothernationsdo,andgivediplomacyachance.
BothPakistanandIndiaarenuclearpowerssowarisnotanoption.
Atthesametime,bothPakistanandIndiaarepoorcountrieswithmuchoftheirpopulationlivingbelowthepovertyline.TheycanlearnathingortwofromtheSCO鈥檚rotatingpresidency:Chinabroughtitsextremepovertyratefrom88percentin1981tolessthan3percentin2018.
Ifaweakgovernmentreturnstopower,thearmywillmaintainthestatusquo.AstrongciviliangovernmentcoulddealwithIndiawithmoreconfidence,andtheregioncouldfinallyseesomepeace.
Ifandwhenpeacereturns,tourismalonecouldbecomeabigeconomicboostfortheregion.Alongsideregionalsecurityandstability,anothermajorpriorityoftheSCOistourismdevelopment.SCOmemberstateshaveseenamajorsurgeintourismwithinthebloc,bothinboundandoutbound.
TheWayForward
Indiawillbeamajorbeneficiaryofthe18thSCOsummitinQingdao.ChinahasbeenwarminguptoIndiaaftertheDongLang(Doklam)standofflastyear.SofarChinahasfailedtosecureIndiansupportfortheBeltandRoadInitiativefortwokeyreasons:Oneoftheprojects,theChina-PakistanEconomicCorridor(CPEC),passesthroughPakistan-administeredKashmir,andIndiaseestheInitiativeasambitionforregionalorglobaldomination.
DespiteIndia鈥檚reservations,bothcountries鈥檉oreignanddefenseministershavevisitedeachother鈥檚capitalstopreparefortheQingdaosummit.
China鈥檚foreignministry,however,isassuringIslamabadthatclosercooperationwithIndiawillnotbeadetrimenttoPakistan.
Ontheotherhand,Pakistan鈥檚mediaandpoliticsduo(coupledwithmilitantswreakinghavoconfragilePakistan)couldbeblamedforPakistan鈥檚lostopportunities.
So,willPakistanbenefitfromtheSCOframeworktoincreaseeconomicopportunitiesforitsmillionsofpoor?HowwillrelationshipswithneighborslikeIndia,IranandAfghanistanbettershapePakistan鈥檚SCOmembershipupgrade?And,willPakistan鈥檚politiciansandmediabehavedifferentlynowthattheyarepartofadifferentleague?Thejuryisstillout.
However,awayforwardisonlypossibleifthemediaandpoliticiansmendtheirways.Whenitcomestointernationalopportunities,politiciansneedtoabandonpettypolitics.InsteadofconspiringtotimestreetagitationsateveryglobalopportunitythatcomesPakistan鈥檚way,theyneedtoappealtovotersbasedonrespectiveperformancesintheirgovernedprovinces.
SCOmembershipshouldonlyhelpPakistanopendoors.Itrequiresourownnationaleffortacrosstwopillars鈥攎ediaandpolitics鈥攑layingvisionaryandfuturisticroles,tohelpPakistanreapthebenefitsand,likeChina,liftourmillionsoutofpoverty.Thisistheonlyway.
TheauthorispresidentoftheInstituteofMediaandCommunicationinPakistanandaPakistanifuturistandlongtimeChina-watcher.Anaward-winningjournalist,heblogsonwalizahid.