Foundedasapermanentintergovernmentalorganizationfocusingonanti-terrorismandbuildingofanewsecurityconcept,theShanghaiCooperationOrganization(SCO)hasevolvedintoanewhistoricalphase.InJune2017,IndiaandPakistanbecamefullmembersoftheSCO,makingtheorganizationthemostpromisingregionalorganization,accountingfor43percentoftheworld鈥檚populationand24percentofitsGDP,withmembersfromCentral,EastandSouthAsia.
TheexpansionoftheSCOmeansitnowincludesthreemajoremergingcountries:China,RussiaandIndia.Intoday鈥檚geopoliticalcontext,theSCOdemonstratesdifferentthinkinganddemandsforthecurrentglobalgovernancemechanism.Clearly,sincetheU.S.troopswithdrewfromAfghanistanin2011,theSCO,asaregionalarchitecture,hasplayedanimportantroleinmaintainingregionalstabilityandpromotingregionaldevelopment.
CentralAsiaandSouthAsia:SoCloseYetSoFar
CentralAsiaisthecoreoftheSCO.Foralongtime,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,TajikistanandUzbekistanhavemaintainedacomplicatedconnectionwithRussiaintermofhistory,territory,economyandtrade.Sincethe1990s,ChinahasbeenstrengtheningeconomicrelationsandenergycooperationwithCentralAsiancountries.
Asaregionalorganization,theSCOmustcarefullyhandlehistorical,geographicalandeconomiclinksbetweenCentralandSouthAsiancountries.Historically,theywereconsideredtohailfromthesameculturaloriginsandgeographicalplateandevenexperiencedfierceculturalcollisionandfusioninAfghanistan.Inthemid-19thcentury,RussiaconqueredtheKhanateofBukharaandtheKhanateofKhiva,resultingintheseparationofCentralAsiaandSouthAsiageographically.Later,AfghanistanandCentralAsiaservedasthebridgelinkingthecoreareaoftheSovietUnionandsub-regionofSouthAsia.AftertheSovietUnioncollapsed,eventhoughtheyarestillinfluencedbyRussia,CentralAsiancountrieschosetheirpoliticalsystemsaccordingtotheirownnationalconditions.Again,Afghanistanhasbecomeacut-offpointbetweenCentralAsiaandSouthAsia.
In2015,IndiaappliedformembershipintheSCO,makingitpossibleforthecountrytoconnectCentralAsiawithSouthAsiaatastrategiclevel.ThereishistoricalbasefortheconnectionbetweenIndiaandCentralAsia鈥擜fghanistan,Turkey,GreeceandMongoliaalloncereachedtheIndianplains.AfterthepartitionofIndia,itsgeographicallinkwithCentralAsiawascutoffbyPakistan,leavingIndiadisconnectedfromCentralAsia.ExceptforcooperationinuraniumminingwithKazakhstan,IndiahaslittleinteractionwithCentralAsiancountries.Asforsecurity,IndiaisplaguedbyterrorisminAfghanistanandlongstocombatterrorismthroughinternationalcooperation.March11,2013:InChabaharCityinsoutheasternIran,IranianworkersweldapipelinelinkingIranandPakistanattheinaugurationceremonyoftheIran-Pakistannaturalgaspipelineproject.XinhuaFromawiderangle,asanemergingdevelopingcountry,IndiahasavoraciousappetiteforenergyconsideringtheModiadministration鈥檚鈥淢akeinIndia鈥漚nd鈥淩eindustrialization鈥漰rograms.Indiahasalreadybecomethefourthlargestenergyconsumerintheworld.TheOilMarketReport2018issuedbytheInternationalEnergyAgencyforecastthatby2023,theworld鈥檚oildemandwouldreach104.7millionbarrelsperday,6.9millionbarrelsmorethanthatin2017.ChinaandIndiaareexpectedtocontributenearly50percentoftheglobalgrowthinoildemand,withIndia鈥檚growthrateincreasingslightly.Between2012and2040,India鈥檚oilconsumptionispredictedtomaintainacompoundannualgrowthrateofthreepercent,thefastestintheworld.Today,IndiastillreliesontheMiddleEastandIndonesiaforitsenergyimportsthroughmarinetransportationviathePersianGulfandMalacca.IfIndiacanaccessenergyinCentralAsiavialandroutes,itcoulddiversifyitsenergyimportstopreventseaborneriskwhilecuttingthecostofenergyimporting.
AsforPakistan,itsentryintotheSCOwasmotivatedbythedomesticsecuritysituationanda鈥渃hainreaction鈥漚fterIndia鈥檚application.Since2001,theU.S.-ledwarinAfghanistanhaskeptPakistanattheforefrontofthefightagainstterrorism,whichhasprovedquitecostlyforthecountry.PakistanbelievesthatthesituationinCentralAsiaiscloselyrelatedtoitsanti-terrorismcampaignsandsecurity,soitsadmissionintotheSCOisjustifiable.Additionally,withregardstotheregionalpowerbalance,afteroveradecadeofcombatingterrorism,PakistanhaslostmanyofitsadvantagesoverIndia.SoitcertainlycannotsitbyandwatchIndiaharvestagreaterstrategicadvantagebyjoiningtheregionalmechanism.
Actually,thethinkingofCentralandSouthAsiaasthesamestrategicunitwasnotnewto2017whenIndiaandPakistanbecamefullmembersoftheSCO.Beforethat,theObamaadministrationintroducedtheAfghanistan-Pakistan(AFPAK)StrategyfocusingonCentralandSouthAsia.WhenHilaryClintonwasU.S.SecretaryofState,shegreatlypromotedaU.S.-led鈥淣ewSilkRoad鈥漰lantolinkCentralandSouthAsia.ButalloftheseinitiativeswereabortedduetothetroublesomeAfghanissue.SoAfghanistanhasalwaysplayedacriticalroleinlinkingCentralAsiaandSouthAsia,whicharesoclosegeographicallybutsofarinspirit.
February23,2018:NearthetownofSerhetabat,Turkmenistan,workersstandnearagaspipeduringthelaunchceremonyforconstructionworkontheTAPIprojectintheAfghansection.ThenaturalgaspipelinewilllinkTurkmenistanthroughAfghanistantoPakistanandIndia.VCGEnergyCorridor:MorethanPipelines
India鈥檚demandfortheenergyofCentralAsiawasonitsagendalongbeforeitsentryintotheSCO.InMay2012,afteryearsofnegotiation,India,PakistanandTurkmenistansignedanimportantagreementonconstructingtheTurkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India(TAPI)naturalgaspipeline.ItisgenerallybelievedthatbreakthroughsintheTAPIprojectcanbeattributedtothegreatsupportfromtheAsianDevelopmentBankoverthepastdecade.Certainly,theimprovementandreinforcementofU.S.-IndiastrategicrelationsmeanttheU.S.greatlypushedtheprogressofTAPI.
IfTAPIcanmoveforward,thedirectbeneficiaryshouldbeAfghanistan.Justincomefromenergytransitwillproduceagreatdealofrevenue,letaloneinfrastructurerelatedtothepipelineandothermeasuresthatwillsparklocaleconomicgrowth.Alongsideitseconomicgrowth,Afghanistanisexpectedtorestorestability.IndiawillwinstrategicallybyconnectingtoCentralAsiathroughTAPI,amovewhichnotonlyguaranteesIndia鈥檚ener-gysupplybutalsointroducesittoCentralAsia,makingitanimportantplayerintheregion.Certainly,consideringtherelationsbetweenIndiaandPakistan,theformercandeclarethattheprogressofTAPIcouldevenalleviateoldgrudgesbetweenthetwocountries.AndinCentralAsia,Turkmenistanmaybethebiggestbeneficiarybecauseitwillearnafortunebyaddinganotherbigbuyer,India,followingChina,todiversifyitsexportsandpreventthestrategicriskofbecomingtoodependentontheChinesemarket.
However,thedevelopmentofTAPIdoesnotlookoptimistic.InMarch2013,thelaunchceremonyoftheIran-PakistannaturalgaspipelinewasheldattheborderofIranandPakistan.Aftertheceremony,thetwocountriessignedagreementstoestablishtradingportsintheirbordercitiesofGabdandPishinandbuildanIranianpetroleumrefineryinPakistan鈥檚GwadarCity.Objectively,theadvancementofIran-PakistanrelationsdoesnothelpTAPI鈥檚prospects.Runningfromnorthtosouth,TAPIisexpectedtotransferenergyfromCentralAsiatoSouthAsiaandintersectwiththeeast-westIran-Pakistanpipeline.ThetwopipelinesinvolvethedirectinterestsofIran,IndiaandPakistan,sotheU.S.andRussiaandevensomeCentralAsiancountrieshaveinterest.Andin2014,thesubstantialwithdrawalofNATOfromAfghanistanresultedinchangesofthecountry鈥檚situation.Allthesefactorsmaketheprospectsofthetwopipelinesmorecomplicated.
Againstthisbackdrop,in2017,withthestrongsupportofRussia,IndiabecameafullmemberoftheSCO,whichenablesittoaccessCentralAsianresourceswithaninstitutionalguarantee.Atpresent,IranandAf-ghanistanareobserversoftheSCO.AfteritsentryintotheSCO,IndiaobtainsthelegalrighttostepintoCentralAsiaandagreenlighttoturntoCentralAsiaandRussiaforenergysecurity.Ofcourse,asoneofthefoundersoftheorganization,ChinawelcomesIndia鈥檚admissionandhasshownsincerityanddeterminationtoeliminatethetrustdeficitandstrategicgapbetweenthetwocountries.
Connectivity:ExploringNewPossibilitiesoftheSCO
WiththeadditionofIndiaandPakistanintotheSCO,CentralAsia,thecoreregionoftheorganization,hasbeencloselyconnectedtoSouthAsiaviaChina鈥檚westernborderareasandAfghanistan.AndthevastnessofRussia,alongwithChina鈥檚largemarket,hasmadetheSCOthemostintactandpromisingregionalarchitectureinEurasia.
ConnectivitybetweenCentralandSouthAsiahassomebasicinfrastructureinplacenow.SinceChinaproposedtheBeltandRoadInitiative,theeightfullmembersoftheSCOaswellasmanyobserversanddialoguepartnershavealignedwithChina鈥檚developmentstrategyatvariouslevels.Forexample,Kazakhstanproposedits鈥淏rightPath鈥漚nd鈥淣ewEconomyPolicy鈥漷oalignwithChina鈥檚SilkRoadEconomicBelt.UzbekistanandKyrgyzstanalsohavesignedagreementsoncooperationwithChinaundertheframeworkoftheSilkRoadEconomicBelt.Additionally,ChinaandRussiahaveenhancedstrategicandpracticalcooperationintherealmsofenergy,high-speedtrains,aerospace,infrastructureconstructionandthedevelopmentoftheFarEastregion.
Meanwhile,theChina-PakistanEconomicCorridor(CPEC)hasharvestedearlyfruits,evidencedbytheconstructionoftheGwadarportandprogressininfrastructurelikeenergyandroads.TheprojectsofCPECarescatteredacrossPakistan,involving60,000localworkersintheirconstruction.Inthenextfivetosevenyears,CPECisexpectedtocreate500,000jobsinthecountry,whoseeconomicgrowthandstabilitywillbringpositiveimpacttoitsneighboringcountryAfghanistan.
However,connectivitywithintheSCOstillhassomerealproblems.DespitebecomingamemberoftheSCO,IndiastillmaintainsanegativeattitudetowardstheBeltandRoadInitiativesolelybecauseCPECpassesthroughthecontroversialKashmirregion.In2017,theDongLangstandoffdraggedrelationsbetweenChinaandIndiatothelowestpointinhistory,greatlyraisingthedeficitofstrategicmutualtrust.Inthiscontext,inApril2018,theinformalmeetingbetweentwocountries鈥檒eaderscanbeseenasaresumptionofbilateralrelations.
Inthenewera,asmajoremergingcountriesinAsiaandSCOmembercountries,ChinaandIndianeedtosurpasstraditionalgeopoliticallogicmarkedbycompetitionandrepresentedbythe鈥淎sia-Pacificrebalancingstrategy,鈥漟abricated鈥渟tringofpearls鈥漮r鈥淚ndo-Pacific.鈥漈hetwoAsianneighborsneedtofocusontheirmajorstrategicinterests,cultivatenewfuelforregionaleconomicgrowthandexplorenewmodelsforfutureinteractionbetweenthem.Atsomespecificpoints,thetwocountriesmayhavetoconsiderexchangingsomeinterestsinordertocontributetotheSCO鈥檚innovativecooperation.TheauthorisexecutiveresearcheroftheNationalInstituteofInternationalStrategyundertheChineseAcademyofSocialSciences.