TheUnitedStatesandSouthKoreahavedecidedtodeploytheTerminalHigh-AltitudeAreaDefensesystem(THAAD),triggeringadominoeffectacrossNortheastAsia.
BothChinaandRussiahaveexpressedtheirstrongoppositioneventhoughtheU.S.andSouthKoreaclaimthatthesystemismeanttoabatethenuclearthreatfromNorthKorearatherthanathirdparty.THAAD鈥檚super-sensitive鈥渄etectionrange,鈥漢owever,iswideenoughtothreatenBeijinganditssurroundingarea,aswellasstrategiceasternregionsofChina.ItwillalsothreatenfareasternRussia.Moreimportantly,ChinaandRussiaareconcernedaboutthenatureandemergenceof鈥淎sianNATO鈥漜onsideringthecouplingofTHAADwiththemissiledefensesystemdeployedbyJapan.
TheDPRKmilitaryannouncedthatitconsidersTHAADanactofwarandvowedtoforcefullyremoveitthemomentthelocationandsiteareconfirmed.
Atpresent,theinternationalcommunityhasreachedsomeconsensusthattheDPRKnuclearcrisisisaregionalmenace,aviewsharedbyeveryotherstakeholderinNortheastAsia.DPRKhasbeenslappedwithanotherroundofunifiedsanctions.TheriskanddangeroftheDPRKnuclearcrisiscanbekeptundercontrolthroughpowerfulsanctionsfromtheinternationalcommunity.ItisnotbeneficialorlogicaltodeployTHAADinresponsetothethreatfromNorthKorea.
BothChinaandRussiahavemadeareasonablejudgment:THAADhasbrokenthestrategicbalanceinSoutheastAsiaandbroughtuncertaindangertothesituationinthatregion.
ConsideringthegeopoliticalgamesbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaintheAsian-PacificregionandbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStatesinEurope,THAADisclearlydirectionalinthereorganizationofAmericanstrategy:IthasbecomeakeypieceoftheAmericanglobalstrategytorestrainbothRussiaandChina,usingthedangerfromNorthKoreaasanexcuse.
ThesituationmayseemsimplefromtheSouthKoreanperspective,astheytrytoprotecttheirsoil,butthemoveisextremelycalculatedbytheactingparty,theUnitedStates,whichchuckledtoitselfwhenSouthKoreacouldn鈥檛understandwhyChinaandRussiaopposedsostrongly.SouthKoreashouldanalyzenotonlywhethertheintroductionofTHAADislikelytoprovokemorefrequenthostilityfromNorthKorea,butalsohowitwillinfluenceitsrelationswithcloseneighborsChinaandRussia.
THAADhasyettobedeployed,buttodayNorthKoreahasbecomemorevolatileandtherelationshipbetweenSouthKoreaandChinaandRussiahasbeenstrained,evidencingthatSeoulhasnotthoroughlyconsideredtherepercussionsofintroducingTHAAD.
RussiaisrespondingbydeployingitsownmissiledefensesystemintheFarEast.Changeswillhappenintheinternationalcommunity鈥檚sanctionsystemagainstNorthKorea.TheexceptionallyfriendlyrelationshipbetweenChinaandSouthKoreaduringParkGeun-hye鈥檚termcouldbeflippedupsidedown.AsfortheU.S.-SouthKorearelationship,it鈥檚notgoingtoimprovebecauseofthedeploymentofTHAAD.
SouthKoreawillcontinuetopayasteeppriceformorethanweaponsandsecurityafterTHAADisdeployedonitsterritory.TheinternationalreactionhasbeenheavilycriticalofthebilateralagreementbetweenSeoulandWashingtonthathurtssomanyotherstobenefitafew.PresidentParkmadeanirrationalmove:HerdecisionhardlymakesadifferencetothereclusiveleaderofNorthKorea,butheavilydisturbseverywhereelseintheregionandputsitsneighboringgreatpowersindangerousdisputes.
SeoulshouldconsiderthatthedissentingvoicesonthedeploymentofTHAADcomenotonlyfromnextdoorbutalsoinside.AsreportedinKoreaJoongAngDaily,ShimJaegwon,chairmanoftheMinjoodangCommittee,declaredtheorganization鈥檚鈥渙ppositiontothedeploymentofTHAAD.鈥漇omerepresentativesoftheoppositionpartystatedoutrightthatthedeploymentofthesystemismeant鈥渘ottosafeguardSouthKorea,buttoattackChina,鈥漚ndthat鈥淐hinawilltakeitsrevengeintrade.鈥漌ooSangho,arepresentativeoftheMinjoodang,pointedoutthattheplantodeployTHAADwasasecretdecisionhiddenfromthepublicandtheNationalAssembly.Theappropriateprocedureswereneverfollowed.
SouthKorea鈥檚politicshasalwaysbeenapowerstrugglebetweenprogressiveandconservative,globallyknownforfightswithintheNationalAssemblyaswellasmovementsinthestreets.ThegreatestthreattheSouthKoreangovernmentfacesmaybecivilstrife,whichcouldspinoutofcontrolifthewillofthepeopleiscontinuouslyignoredastheleadershipkneelstoWashingtonindestabilizingtheregion.
TheAsian-PacificregionisexperiencingupheavalfromtheEastChinaSeatotheSouthChinaSeabecausetheUnitedStatesislookingafteritsowninterestsintheregion.SouthKoreaisneitherJapannorthePhilippines.Itscorenationalinterestliesingrowingitseconomyandtrade,aswellasmaintainingsecurityandsoundrelationshipswithChinaandtheUnitedStates.AnyshiftinthesituationwillresultindrasticchangeintherelationshipsbetweenallthreecountriesandcauseanimbalanceinthefragilestrategicpatternsofNortheastAsia.
NotonlydoesthedeploymentofTHAADinvalidatetheriskcoping-mechanismagainsttheDPRKnuclearcrisis,butitwilltriggerregionalarmsraces.