AlthoughTrumpdidn鈥檛systematicallyelaborateonhisforeignpolicyideas,somevaluablecluescanbefoundinspeecheshemadeduringthecampaign.First,Trumpstronglyadvocatesthe鈥淎mericafirst鈥漝octrine,andhisforeignpolicyechoesanoldisolationism.ComparedwithhispredecessorssinceWorldWarII,TrumpdemonstratesaweakerdesireforAmericangloballeadership.HeopposesexcessiveU.S.involvementinworldaffairsandobjectstosomanyoverseasburdens,arguingthattheU.S.shouldfocusondomesticproblems.Second,Trumpisanationalist,economically.HecaresaboutU.S.interestsandeconomicholdingsandseesglobalizationinanegativelight,opposingfreetrade.Trumphasseemedjustasskepticalaboutglobalgovernanceandinternationalcooperation.Forexample,hehasassertedthattheParisAgreement,whichdealswithclimatechange,isunnecessaryandthatsomeinternationalorganizationsareunreliable.
Basedontheseclues,theTrumpadministration鈥檚foreignpolicyisexpectedtoveerinanewdirection.
First,theU.S.willpracticemorestrategicretrenchmentandretreating.TheObamaadministration(2009-2017)learnedalessoninover-reachingfromtheBushadministration(2001-2009)andcarriedoutstrategiccontractiontosomeextent.Forexample,ObamaendedtheIraqandAfghanistanwarsandshowedmorerestraintandprudenceinlaunchingoverseasmilitaryinterventions.ItnowseemsthatTrumpmaygoevenfurther.Ofcourse,sincetheU.S.hasconsiderableoverseasinterests,Trumpwillfindithardtopracticecompleteisolationism.Instead,hewilllikelypursueapolicyofselectiveparticipationandinvolvement,focusingonsafeguardingAmericantraditionalinterestsinEurope,theMiddleEast,andEastAsia,andaskingalliestoshouldermoresecurityresponsibilities.
Second,Trumpwillputthebrakesonglobalizationandglobalgovernance,orevenattempttoreversesomeaspectsofglobalization.TrumpwillpullU.S.participationfromboththeTrans-PacificPartnership(TPP)andTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership(TTIP),bothofwhichwereaggressivelypromotedbytheObamaadministration.TrumpmayalsowithdrawfromtheParisAgreement,justastheBushadministrationabandonedtheKyotoProtocol.Trumphasshownapathytowardsmechanismspromotingglobaleconomicgovernanceandregionaltrade-and-investment-liberalizationsuchastheGroupofTwentyandtheAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation.
Third,TrumpcouldimprovetheU.S.鈥檚relationswithRussiasubstantially.Basedonhisfundamentalphilosophyofstrategiccontraction,Trumpwouldn鈥檛beinterestedinsuppressingRussiathroughNATOexpansion.TheTrumpadministrationcouldpassofftheUkrainecrisistoEuropeanallies.TheU.S.willcontinuetoplayaroleincrisismanagement,butperhapsnotthelead.TheTrumpadministrationwilllikelygraduallyreduceandliftsanctionsagainstRussiainexchangeforU.S.-Russiacooperationinotherareas.
Fourth,theTrumpadministrationwon鈥檛beasaggressivewiththeAsia-PacificRebalanceStrategyadvocatedandpromotedbytheObamaadministration.TrumpwillsurelycontinuetoattachgreatimportancetoU.S.interestsintheAsia-Pacificregion,buthismethodsofmaintainingtheseinterestswillchange.Economically,withlessappetiteformultilateralarrangements,theU.S.isexpectedtorelymoreonbilateralarrangements.Strategicallyandlikehispredecessor,TrumpwillnotseekactivemeasurestocontainChina,andwillprobablynotvigorouslypromotesecuritycooperationwithallies.Instead,hehascalledforallies,suchasJapanandSouthKorea,toshouldermoresecurityresponsibilitiesontheirown.
EconomicandtradebenefitsareTrump鈥檚priorityinregardstoChinapolicy.SinceTrumphashighlightedtheimportanceofrevivingU.S.manufacturingandcreatingjobs,hewillplacegreateremphasisontraditionaltradeandshowmoreinclinationtowardprotectionism,whichwilllikelyleadtoincreasedtradefrictionsbetweenChinaandtheU.S.However,TrumpwelcomesChinatoexpanditsinvestmentsintheU.S.,whichwillboostU.S.manufacturing,increaseemployment,andupgradeoutdatedinfrastructure.TrumpwillsoftenhisideologyonforeignpolicytowardsChinaandavoidfiercegeopoliticalcompetitionwithChinaintheWesternPacific.Still,theTrumpadministrationwillremainhighlyalerttowardsChina鈥檚developmentofmilitarypower.TherewillbemorepracticalcooperationbetweenChinaandtheU.S.intheAsia-Pacificregion.Traditionally,RepublicanshavebeenmoresupportiveofTaiwan,andthedevelopmentofU.S.-Taiwanrelations,especiallymilitaryrelations,demandsspecialattention.
Theauthorisexecutivevice-presidentoftheInstituteofInternationalStudiesanddirectorofCenterforAmericanStudiesatFudanUniversity.