Thefirstfactorisaturbulentpoliticalsituationinseveralcountries.ConstructionofthePan-AsiaRailwayNetworknotonlyrequiresabundantresourceinputfromrelatedpartiesbutalsoacomparativelystablesocialenvironment.However,inthepastfewyears,constructionofseveralkeystationsonthePan-AsiaRailwayNetwork,includingstopsinMyanmar,Thailand,andCambodia,hasbeendelayedbysocialunrestcharacterizedbyeitherinternalarmedconflictorsocialinstabilitytriggeredbyelections.Forsuchreasons,constructionofthePan-AsiaRailwayNetworkinthesecountrieshasbeenplacedonthebackburner.SomeagreementsandcontractsontheconstructionofthePan-AsiaRailwayNetworksignedbyChinaandrelatedcountrieshavebecomevoidandsomewerenotcompletedbyacertaindeadline,causingsomeprojectstobesuspendedindefinitely.Instabilitywouldslowtheconstructionprocessanyway.Sincedomesticchaoshasalreadyjeopardizedthesafetyoftheemployeesandpropertyoftheenterprisesbuildingandoperatingtherailwaynetworkinthesecountries,respectivegovernmentsmustintervene.However,anysimplefix,suchassuspendingprojectsuntilthesituationgetsbetterorwastingtheentirebudgetonsecurity,wouldstillhamperconstructionoftherailwaynetwork.Policyuncertaintyandincreasedcostsbroughtbyinstabilityinsomecountriesalongtherailwaynetwork,aswellaschangesinsomebilateralrelationships,haveimpededtheconstructionprocessesofvariouslinesintherailwaynetwork.
Thesecondkeyfactorispressurefromcost-benefitanalyses.ThegeneralpreconditionforcountriestoparticipateintheconstructionofthePan-AsiaRailwayNetworkisthepromiseofbenefitsoutweighingcosts.Certainly,everySoutheastAsiancountrywouldwelcomea鈥渇reeride鈥漮narailwayconnectingthemdirectlytoChinatosharethefruitsofChina鈥檚economicdevelopment.Infact,suchanideaisdirectlyinlinewiththesharingconceptadvocatedbytheBeltandRoadInitiative,andismeanttoserveasthefundamentalmotivationtoseekrailconnectivitywithChina.ForChina,thePan-AsiaRailwayNetworkcanprovidenewpassagewaysbetweenChinaandSoutheastAsiancountries,whichwouldnotonlyfacilitategreaterbilateraltradeandstrengthenbonds,butalsoconsolidatethecooperationframeworkoftheBeltandRoadInitiative.However,variouspartieshaveproduceddifferingassessmentsandcalculationsonconstructioncostsandbenefits.Whileoneprojectorplanisdeemedeconomicallyreasonableintheeyesofoneparty,itmaynotappearsotoanother.Ifvariouspartiescannotreachconsensusoncostsharingandrevenuedistribution,itwillbedifficultforthePanAsiaRailwayNetworktobecomeareality.
TheNongKhai-NakhonRatchasimaline,thenorthernsectionoftheChina-ThailandRailway,representsakeyexampleofthisproblem.EconomicconsiderationsremainthemajorcauseofThailand鈥檚inertiainconstructingthesection.Sinceareasalongthelinefeaturecomparativelybackwardeconomicdevelopmentandsmallpopulations,theydon鈥檛foreseesufficientvolumeofpassengersorgoodstokeeptrainsoperatingregularlyonthisroute.IfmosttrainsaremovingpassengersandfreightfromChina,thelinewouldonlyhavealimitedeffectindrivinglocaleconomicdevelopment.Andpassagevialocalroadsandairwaysisquiteaffordable,socostpressureonintroducingarailwayhasbeenmounting.ForChina,theChina-ThailandRailwaywouldrepresentalandmarkprojectandabigstepinChina鈥檚high-speedrailgoingabroad.ChinaplaceshighvalueonsuchalineasamodelforbuildingtheBeltandRoad,butitstillmuststrikeabalancebetweenstrategicgainsandeconomiccosts.
Thirdly,politicalworrieschokemomentum.Railwayconnectivity,likeotherformsofeconomiccooperation,willgenerateanadditiveeffectinthepoliticalrealm.SoundoperationofthePan-AsiaRailwayNetworkwillbecomeapositivefactorinconsolidatingandupgradingbilateralrelationsbetweenChinaandtherespectivecountriesinthenetwork.AlthoughrailwayconnectivityundertheBeltandRoadInitiativeframeworkaimstopromoteeconomiccooperationbetweeninvolvedcountries,somehaveexpressedconcernabouttheaccompanyingpoliticaleffects.CountriesalongthePan-AsiaRailwayNetworkaremoresensitivetowardschangesinrelativegains.Thepostponementoftheconstructioncanalsobeattributedtofinancingandmanagementproblems.
Finally,theimpactoffiercegeopoliticalcompetitioncannotbeignored.ThePan-AsiaRailwayNetworkwillpromotetiesbetweenChinaandSoutheastAsiancountries,elevateChina鈥檚statusandenhanceitsinfluenceinSoutheastAsia.Duringthegeo-economicstructureremodelingprocess,countrieswithmajorinfluenceinSoutheastAsiahavebeenwatchingcloselyandhaveevenexpressedoppositiontorailwaynetworkconstruction.Inrecentyears,JapanhasincreaseditsinvestmentintherailwayinfrastructureofSoutheastAsia.IndiahasproposedandpromotedtheLookEastPolicy.ThesemoveshaveinfluencedtheexpectationsofsomeSoutheastAsiancountriesonthesouthernrailwayroutealongtheBeltandRoad.Somehaveconsequentlybecomemorereluctanttoparticipateandamendedtheircooperationconditions,impedingtheconstructionprocessofthePan-AsiaRailwayNetwork.
Allthesefactors鈥攗nstablepoliticalsituations,costpressures,politicalmaneuveringandgeopoliticalcompetition鈥攈avebeenhinderingconstructionofthesouthernrailwayroutealongtheBeltandRoad.Inthefuture,specificchallengesmaychangealongwithdevelopmentstothesituation,andsomenowminorfactorscouldbecomemoreinfluential.
TheauthorisanassistantresearcherattheCenterforRussianandCentralAsianStudiesandtheCenterforShanghaiCooperationOrganization(SCO)Studies,undertheInstituteofInternationalStudiesatFudanUniversityinShanghai.
December15,2016:AtrainpassestheDalihuayingExtra-largeBridge.ThebridgeislocatedalongtheKunming-YuxisectionoftheChina-VietnamandChina-Laosinternationalrailways.byZhangXiangtao/Xinhua