Whyweretheworldeconomyandglobaltradeabletoseerapidgrowthinthefirsttenyearsofthecentury?Ontheonehand,thedecaderepresenteda‘boom’periodinalongeconomiccycle;ontheotherhand,thefollowingspecificfactorsworkedtogethertomaketheperiodofeuphoriapossible:
TechnologicalinnovationsinrealmslikeITsprungupandquicklyspreadacrosstheglobe;
Themarketeconomysystemwaswidelyadoptedbyalmostalleconomiesaroundtheworld,andthemajorityoftransitionaleconomiesenteredatrackofeconomicrecoveryandgrowthaftersurvivingapainfuldecadeoftransition;
ThemultilateraltrademechanismandrulesoftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)operatedsmoothly;February5,2017:AcontainerfilledwithwheatfromKazakhstanisunloadedatalogisticsterminaljointlybuiltbyChinaandKazakhstaninLianyungangCity,easternChina’sJiangsuProvince.CFPThecomparativelyloosemonetarypoliciesadoptedbymajorWesterncentralbanks,especiallytheU.S.FederalReserve,createdsufficientliquidityforothereconomies,directlyandindirectly,whichconsequentlysupportedtheireconomicandtradegrowth;
Westerncountries—especiallytheworld’slargestbuyer,theUnitedStates—kepttheirmarketswideopen,thusboostingothereconomies’export-orientedgrowth.
However,theaforementionedfavorableconditionsarenowvanishing.TheglobaleconomyenteredaphaseofrecessionaftertheoutbreakoftheU.S.subprimemortgagecrisisin2008.Manybelieveitwilltakearelativelylongtimefortheworldeconomytousherinanotherroundofprosperity,giventhatthefactorsbackingtheworldwideeconomicboominthefirstdecadeofthecenturyhaveeitherfadedawayorbegunreversing.
Theworldwon’tseeanewtechnologicalrevolutionthatcanbolstersignificanteconomicreboundintheshortrun;
Thestimulatingeffectsofthespreadofthemarketeconomysystemarevanishing;
TheloosemonetarypoliciesofmajorWesterncentralbanks,includingtheU.S.FederalReserve,havealreadycometoanendastheirnegativesideeffectsbecameworseandworse.Itisonlyamatteroftimebeforetheytightentheirmonetarypolicies,whicharethenexpectedtoremaintightenedforacertainperiodoftime;
Tradeprotectionismandanti-globalizationhavebeguntospringup.UndertheTrumpadministration,theglobaltradesystemisexpectedtoenteraneraofchaosandturbulence.
Facingsuchasituation,inwhatwayswillChinacontinuetoshoulderevengreaterinternationalresponsibilities?First,itshouldproperlyaddressitsownchallengesandmaintainhealthy,steadyeconomicandsocialprogress,thussettingagoodexampleforothercountriesontheplanet:Ifacountrywantstocontinuouslymakecontributionstotheworld,itmustdevelopwellbyitselfandthenhelpothers.
Overthepastdecades,China’srapideconomicdevelopmenthasobviouslyimprovedthewell-beingofpeopleallaroundtheworldandfacilitatedglobalgovernance.Chinese-madeproductshaveplayedacrucialroleinensuringthattheUnitedStateshasmaintainedan“inflation-freeeconomicgrowth”sincethe1990s,andmadeevengreatercontributionstoimprovingthelivelihoodsofpeopleindevelopingcountries.
September20,2015:ThelightrailthatChinaRailwayGroupLtd.constructedinAddisAbaba,Ethiopia,isofficiallyputintooperation.ItisthefirstofitskindontheentireAfricancontinent.XinhuaMeanwhile,throughpromotingindustrializationanddevelopinganexport-orientedeconomy,Chinahasbecometheworld’slargestmanufacturerandexporter.Itsindividualimportgrowthhasbeentwotimesfasterthantheglobalaverage.Throughgoodsandservicestradeandoutboundinvestment,Chinahashelpedmanycountriesandregionsacceleratetheireconomicandsocialdevelopment.
Onaverage,Chinacontributed14.2percentofworldeconomicgrowthduringthe10thand11thFive-YearPlanPeriods(20012010).Inthe12thFive-YearPlanPeriod(2011-2015),ifcalculatedat2010U.S.dollarconstantprices,Chinacontributed30.5percentofworldeconomicgrowth,asharebiggerthanthatofanyothercountry.In2016,Chinaremainedthebiggestcontributortoworldeconomicgrowth,withashareof33.2percent.Amidtheuncertaintiesintheglobaleconomy,thehealthy,stabledevelopmentofChina’seconomyisaprerequisiteforthehealthy,stabledevelop-mentoftheworldeconomy.
Globalgovernancecanbedividedintoeconomicgovernanceandpoliticalsecuritygovernance.Intermsofeconomicgovernance,Chinashouldinsistontheprincipleoffreetrade.OveralongperiodaftertheendofWorldWarII,theUnitedStatesservedasabeaconofglobalfreetrade.However,tradeprotectionismhasbegunprevailinginrecentyears,andtheTrumpadministrationislikelytoadoptaggressivetradepoliciesthatwillprobablyexacerbateinternationaltradefrictions.ItistimeforChinatobecometheglobalbeaconoffreetrade.ThisisnotonlybecauseChinahasbecometheworld’ssecondlargesteconomyandoneofthebiggesttradingpowers,butalsobecauseitspoliticalsystemmakesiteasiertoplaytheroleofanadvocateoffreetrade.
Chinahopestomakeasgreatacontributionaspossibletohelpingtheglobaleconomyandtradesurvivetheperiodofsluggishgrowth.But,whetheritswishescanbefulfilleddependsoncooperationfromitstradingpartners.Chinaistryingitsutmosttocreateopportunities.Butifitstradingpartnersfailtoenactinstantreforms,suchopportunitieswillexistinvain.
TheauthorisaresearcherattheChineseAcademyofInternationalTradeandEconomicCooperationundertheChineseMinistryofCommerce.
January6,2015:AChinesecompanydisplaysitsmotionsensorforbicycles,whichcantransmitdatasynchronouslyviaBluetooth,attheConsumerElectronicsShow(CES)inLasVegas.Xinhua