SouthAfricanpoliticsisinturmoilafterthecountry’sConstitutional
Court-thehighestcourtintheland-ruledthatPresidentJacobZumahadviolatedtheconstitution.TheMarchrulingsaidZumashouldcarryouttheremedialactionsoutlinedbythePublicProtector,theanti-corruptionwatchdog,andrepaytaxpayers’moneyusedfornon-securityupgradesathis$16-millionNkandlaprivatehomestead.Therulinghaspromptedanunprecedentedpublicbacklashwithcallsfromoppositionmembers,civilsociety,churchleadersandevenmembersofZuma’sownrulingAfricanNationalCongress(ANC)forhimtoresign.Zumahaswelcomedthecourtrulingandapologizedtothenation,makingitclearhewon’tresign.
ItnowremainstobeseeniftheANC,Africa’soldestpoliticalmovement,willsurvivethefalloutfromthislatestcontroversyandcanprevailafterthebiggestthreattoitspoliticaldominancesincecomingtopowerin1994.Zuma’scriticssayNkandla,andotherscandalallegationslinkedtohim,havesulliedtheimageandmoralcredibilityoftheANC,whichisinextricablyassociatedwiththevisionoftheparty’smostfamousson,NelsonMandela.
SouthAfricaisstrugglingwithdrought,aweakeconomy,highunemploymentandapossibleratingsagencydowngrade,meaningitsimmediatechallengesarespreadacrossapolitical,socialandeconomicspectrum.Despitebeingbatteredonallthesefronts,theANC’stopleadershipgrouphaspledgeditssupportforZuma,sayingcallsforthepartytoremoveitsleaderweretantamounttocallsforitto“tearitselfapart.”
ButwithlocalgovernmentelectionssetforAugust3,oppositionpartieshavesmeltbloodandfoundunityintheirdrivetousethecourtrulingfallouttochallengetheANC’smunicipalmajorityatthepolls.Twooftheseparties,theofficialoppositionDemocraticAlliance(DA),whofailedinanattempttoimpeachZuma,andthefastrisingEconomicFreedomFighters(EFF),understandthattheycould,inthelongterm,mountagenuinebidforcontrolofthecountryatthegeneralelectionin2019iftheydowellinAugust.
TheANCalsoknowsthatifitfarespoorlyattheAugustelections,itcouldforceitshandtoreconsideritssupportforZuma.Yetremovingitsleadernowwillfragmenttheparty-apoliticalcatch-22.Atthesametime,notremovingZumafromofficemeanstheANChasmadeitsdecisionasfaraspartyunityandamoralstanceisconcerned.Inthisinstance,thetwooptionscannotco-exist.Thebeneficiariesofthisdecisionwillbetheoppositionparties,whowillcapitalizeonthemoralstandpointofnotremovingZuma,anduseitagainsttheANCatthelocalgovernmentelections.
TheANC’smainsupportbaseisinruralSouthAfrica,wheresocialmediaandthecourtofpublicopinionarenotasvitriolicagainstitsleaderasitisinurbanareas.ThisiswheretheANCwilllooktopinitshopesgoingforward,promisingbetterservicedeliveryandfasterimplementationoftheNationalDevelopmentPlan,whichaimstoeliminatepovertyandreduceinequalityby2030.GettingthemessageouttothemassestocontinuesupportingZumaandthepartywillnodoubtbehighonitsagenda.
TheANCisinafightforitssoulandthemonthsaheadwillrequireallthepoliticalpersuasionofthecharismaticZumatomaintainsocialcohesionandthetrustofhisparty’sfaithful.THEEDITOR
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