TheauthorisaresearchfellowattheCharharInstituteandNorthwestUniversity,China
AnkarahasmaintainedcloserelationswithWashingtoneversincemodernTurkeywasestablishedin1924,butrecentU.S.sanctionsagainstthecountryandthefreefalloftheTurkishliramightspelltheendofTurkey鈥檚longstandingalliancewiththeUnitedStates.TherecenttensionbetweenthetwocountrieswascatalyzedbythearrestofAmericanpastorAndrewBrunson,butcanalsobeperceivedastheconsequenceofTurkey鈥檚nationaltransformationfroma鈥淲esternnation鈥漷oan鈥淓asternstate,鈥漧edbyPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganandhisJusticeandDevelopmentParty(AKP)accordingtotheprinciplesofneo-Ottomanism.
Turkish颅U.S.divide
ThedepreciationoftheTurkishliraduringthepastfewweeksisthedirectresultofeconomicsanctionsbyWashington.ThebasisforthesemeasuresistheimprisonmentofBrunson,anAmericanpastorwhowasdetainedinOctober2016,andthebreakdowninnegotiationsforhisreleaseinlateJuly.OnAugust1,theTreasuryDepartmentoftheUnitedStatesannouncedthatitwouldfreezetheassetsoftwoofTurkey鈥檚governmentministersoverBrunson鈥檚continueddetention.U.S.Congressispushingforaslewofseparatesanctions,includinghaltingthedeliveryofF-35fighterjetsandblockingfundingtoTurkeyfromtheWorldBankandtheInternationalMonetaryFund.Washington鈥檚inclusionofTurkeyinitstradewarwithChinaandtheEU,andAnkara鈥檚resistancetoU.S.sanctionsagainstIranhavebothmadethelira鈥檚depreciationinevitable.
ThedetentionofBrunsonrepresentsamicrocosmofTurkeyandtheUnitedStates鈥檙uggedbilateralrelations.EversinceJuly2016,afterafailedmilitarycoupagainstErdoganandtheAKP,thehostilityanddistrustbetweenAnkaraandWashingtonhaveintensified.AnkarabelievesthatWashingtonwasbehindthecoupattemptandgaverefugetotheleaderoftherebellion,FethullahGulen,althoughtheWhiteHousehasdeniedthis.AnkaramaintainsthatGulenstilloperatesandhasinfluenceovera鈥渟tatewithinTurkey鈥漚ndupholdsthatBrunsonisanimportantactorinthis鈥渟tate.鈥滲runson鈥檚releasehasthereforebecomeallbutimpossiblegiventhemassivelossofprestigethiswouldentailforErdoganandhisrulingAKPgovernmentifheappearedtobecavingintoU.S.pressure.
AlsofuelingtensionsisWashington鈥檚supportforKurdishmilitantsinnorthernSyria.TheKurdishDemocraticUnionParty(PYD),whichcontrolsalargeareainnortheasternSyria,hasbeenperceivedbyAnkaraasanextensionoftheKurdishWorkers鈥橮arty(PKK),consideredaterroristgroupbytheTurkishGovernment.Washington,onthecontrary,perceivesthePYDasanimportantallyandpartnerthatisabletoresisttheexpansionofIslamicextremisminnorthernSyria.TurkeyhassuccessfullylaunchedseveralmassivemilitaryoffensivesinnorthernSyriasincethestartof2018alongsideitspickofSyrianrebelgroups,sowhiletheU.S.militarypresenceinnortheasternSyriaalsocontinues,thetensionanddistrustbetweenWashingtonandAnkaralooksuretocontinue.
Turkey鈥檚newidentity
ThepasttwodecadeshavealsowitnessedthetransformationofTurkey鈥檚nationalidentity.ModernTurkeywasestablishedaftertheFirstWorldWarwhentheOttomanEmpire,whichupheldtheideologyofpan-IslamismtoportrayitselfastheprotectorofMuslims,collapsed.WhileostensiblytheOttomanEmpirewasdefeatedinbattlebytheUnitedKingdom,FranceandotherEuropeanpowers,itsdemisewasalsotheresultofinternaldivisions,particularlythedisharmonybetweenTurksandArabs.
Inthelate19thcentury,theOttomanEmpirelostmostofitsEuropeanterritoriesasChristiangroupsinAnatoliaandThracecameundertheinfluenceofthenationalstrategiesofRussia,theAustroHungarianEmpire,FranceandotherWesternpowers.Atthistime,IslamicthinkerssuchasJamalDinAfghaniandMuhammadAbduhmaintainedthatonly鈥淚slamicbelief鈥漜oulduniteallethnicgroupsunderthesamebannertosafeguardthe鈥淐aliphate,鈥漧edbytheOttomanSultaninIstanbul,againstinvasionandhumiliationbyWesternpowers.ItwasagainstthisbackdropthattheSultandecidedtostrengthentheOttomanEmpirebyaugmentingapan-Islamicpoliticalideology.
However,duringWorldWarI,whiletheSultanwascallinguponMuslimstounitetoresisttheUnitedKingdom,FranceandRussiaunderthebannerofjihad,orholywar,thedivisionsinsidetheMuslimworldwerebecomingmoreentrenched.In1917,theArabRevoltledbytheEmirofMeccaintheArabPeninsula,HusseinIbnAli,dealtaseriousblowtoOttomanillusionsofpanIslamism.HusseinIbnAli,supportedbytheUnitedKingdom,ledhisArabforcestooccupyalargeregioninthesouthernOttomanEmpire,whilemanyimportantsitesandregionssuchastheIslamicholycitiesofMeccaandMedina,Damascus,Baghdad,Mosul,HomsandJerusalemwereoccupiedeitherbyArabmilitantsorBritishExpeditionaryForces.AmanwithdrawslirafromacashmachineinIstanbul,Turkey,onAugust14.Thelirahasplungedby45percentthisyearXINHUAFollowingWorldWarIandthefailureofpan-Islamism,theOttomanEmpirewasleftwithcontroloveronlyitsAnatolianterritories.Inacrisisofnationalidentity,itbecameimportantforpeoplelivinginthisreducedstatetoredefinewhotheywereandtofillthevoidleftbythedestructionofthepan-Islamicvision.MustafaKemalAtat眉rkredefinedmodernTurkeyasacountrycharacterizedbyscientific,Westernanddevelopedcharacteristics,ratherthanthebackward,Eastern,undevelopedtraditionsofitspast.Afterthe1920s,TurkeyperceiveditselfasapartoftheWesternworldratherthanasanEasternstate.Religionbecameseparatedfrompoliticsandwasconfinedtothemosques,whiletheCaliphwasoustedandanewmodernpoliticalsystemwasestablishedinthecountry.
AfterWorldWarII,TurkeychosetojoinNATOtoresistthethreatfromitsnorthernneighbor,theSovietUnion.Inrecentdecades,TurkeyhaspersistentlysoughttobecomeabonafideEuropeanstatebyjoiningfirsttheEuropeanCommunityandlatertheEuropeanUnion.TurkeyandtheUnitedStatesdevelopedacloserelationshipasAnkarabecamesubservienttoWashingtonandthegovernmentsofotherEuropeannations.
Since2002,Turkey鈥檚nationalidentityhasbeeninfluencedbytheneo-OttomanismupheldbytheAKPgovernment.NeoOttomanismisessentiallythefusionofpan-Islamismandpan-Turkism,theformerofwhichdrivesTurkeytobecomeinvolvedinregionalissuesintheMiddleEast,whilethelatterunderpinsAnkara鈥檚willingnesstoofferassistancetoTurkishethnicgroupsaroundtheworld.ItisagainstthisbackdropthatTurkey,followingtheturbulenceof2011whentheArabSpringsweptacrosstheMiddleEast,decidedtobecomeinvolvedintheSyrianCivilWar,theSaudiQatarcrisis,theLibyanCivilWarandotherregionalconflicts.
Neo-OttomanismhasawakenedTurkeytoanewnationalidentity,andAnkaraisnolongerwillingtocontinueinasubmissiverolewithitsWesternpartners.FromAnkara鈥檚decisiontosuspendnegotiationsoverEUmembershiptoescalatingtensionwiththeUnitedStates,Ankaraisbecomingevermoreindependentinitsforeignpolicy.
WhileTurkey鈥檚鈥渆astward鈥漰olicymeansunitingmorecloselywithRussia,itiswrongtoimaginethatTurkeywillbecomesubmissivetoMoscowasitoncewastotheWest.AnincreasinglyconfidentTurkeyisrising,anditwillhaveanimportantroletoplayintheincreasinglyintricatearenaofgeopoliticalcompetition.
CopyeditedbyLaurenceCoultonCommentsto