TextbyLiHainan
DatareleasedbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaonApril15,2016,showedthecountry鈥檚GDPexceeded15.85trillionyuanandgrew6.7percentyear-on-yearinthefirstquarterofthisyear.Despitethefactthatthegrowthrateisslightlylowerthan6.8percentfromthefourthquarterof2015,marketanalystsstillapplaudedChina鈥檚economicachievementsinthefirstquarterof2016againstabackdropofthevolatileworldeconomyandwidespreadpessimismoverChina鈥檚economyinthefirsttwomonthsoftheyear,dubbingthequartera鈥済oodstart鈥漟orthe13thFive-YearPlanperiod(2016-2020).
March鈥檚pleasantsurpriseaboutChina鈥檚economicgrowthshouldhavebeenapparent.Thecrucialfactorwascollaborativegrowthoftraditionalandnewindustries.
Afterthe2008globalfinancialcrisis,thetraditionaleconomicgrowthmodebasedonfast-growinginvestmentandexportgraduallylostmomentuminChina.Transformingeconomicgrowthmodeswhileseekinghighqualitydevelopmentinthe鈥渘ewnormal鈥漰eriodhasgraduallybecomethedominanttrendforChina鈥檚futuredevelopment.
BasedonthepredictionthatthegrowthrateofinvestmentandexportwouldcontinuedroppinginChina,someproducedgloomyforecastsforthecountry鈥檚GDPinthefirstquarter.However,realityhasproventheywerewrong.StatisticsshowthatChina鈥檚totalinvestmentinfixedassets(excludingruralhouseholds)realizedayear-on-yeargrowthof10.7percenttonearly8.6trillionyuaninthefirstquarter.Thatgrowthrateis0.7percent-agepointshigherthanthatof2015.Afterasharpdeclineinthefirsttwomonthsofthisyear,China鈥檚exportsgrew18.7percentinMarch,muchhigherthanexpected.
Alongsidethesteadygrowthininvestmentandrapidreboundofexports,China鈥檚constantefforttowardseconomicrestructuringwasanotherimportantfactorbehindthenation鈥檚better-than-expectedgrowthinthefirstquarter,accordingtoWangJinbin,vicedeanoftheSchoolofEconomicsatRenminUniversityofChina.Statisticsshowthattertiaryindustriescontributed56.9percentofChina鈥檚GDPinthefirstquarter,twopercentagepointshigherthanthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.Thefigurewas19.4percentagepointshigherthanthatofthesecondaryindustry.Moreover,developmentcoordinationbetweendifferentregionswasenhanced.ThetotaladdedvalueofindustrialenterprisesabovethedesignatedsizeincentralandwesternChinagrew7percentand7.3percent,respectively,bothhigherthanineasternChina,whichmeansthedevelopmentimbalancewasfurtherreduced.AllofthesenumbersevidencethefruitsofChina鈥檚economicrestructuringefforts.Despitethefactthatmanufacturingcontinuesdeclining,thecountry鈥檚serviceindustriesareexpandingrapidly.Inparticular,somefast-growinghi-techsectorsareexpectedtobecomenewenginesoftheChineseeconomyinthefuture.
China鈥檚better-than-expectedeconomicgrowthinthefirstquarterof2016isworkingwonderstoeasethepessimismoverthecountry鈥檚economicprospectsandrefutingsomeforeigneconomistsandinstitutions鈥檊loomypredictionsfortheworld鈥檚secondlargesteconomy.Changingopinionsarealreadycomingout.Initslatestreport,theInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)raisedits2016forecastforChinaby0.2percentagepointsto6.5percentwhileloweringitsforecastforglobalgrowth.
Currently,Chinaispushingforwardtworeforms:Oneisthedebt-for-equityswapwhichwillplayaconsiderableroleinloweringenterprises鈥檉inancialleverageratios,andtheotheristaxreduction,includingthepolicytoreplacethebusinesstaxwithavalue-addedtaxtoreduceenterprises鈥檛axburdens.Accordingtomarketanalysts,bothreformsaimtohelpenterprisescutcoststhroughsupply-sidereform.ThisisalsotheultimategoalofChina鈥檚supply-sidestructuralreform.
ExpertsbelievethattheimplementationandimprovementofsuchmeasureswillstabilizeeconomicgrowthandhelperadicatethetwohiddenthreatstoChina鈥檚economy:aslowdowninprivateinvestmentgrowthandadownturninindustrialgrowth.ConsideringthatChina鈥檚traditionaleconomicgrowthpointsarestillhummingalongandneweconomicforcesaregainingsteam,thisreboundingeconomicgrowthwillcontinueontheupswingandthereisahighpossibilitythatChina鈥檚economicgrowthinthesecondquarterwillbetterthefirstquarter.Thereisnoneedtoworryaboutthenation鈥檚macroeconomictendencies.
TheauthorisaseniorjournalistandcommentatorforChinaEconomicTimes.