Inpursuitoftradeprotectionism,theUnitedStateshaslaunchedaseriesoftradewarsaroundtheworldwhichwillnotonlyproveadversetothelong-termdevelopmentoftheU.S.economy,butalsoleaveaseriousnegativeimpactandcausedestructiontotherecoveringglobaleconomy.TheU.S.hasbecomeachallengeandthreattotheexistingrulebasedmultilateraltradingsystem.U.S.hegemonyhasraisedoppositionandcriticismfromothermajorcountries.Forstarters,thispolicychoiceoftheU.S.isabackpedal.Openingandfreetradearetrendsofthetimesandthegoalofinternationalmultilateraltradeorganizations,andtheprincipleoffaircompetitionisgenerallyacceptedbyallcountries.ConsideringthedevelopmentofinternationaltradeinthewakeofWorldWarII,theU.S.鈥檛ariffsonproductsontheSection301listfromChinaandsteelimportsfromtheEuropeanUnionandothercountriesopposethebasicprinciplesoffreetrade.TheyreflectTrump鈥檚unconventionalstyleandtheadventurousbehaviorsoftheadministration.ThismoveisboundtoreceivecondemnationandoppositionfromothermajoreconomiesandconsequentlycausetheU.S.tosuffereconomiclossesaswellasbeingforcedintoisolation.
Moreover,thepolicyoftradeprotectionismbenefitsnonebuthurtsAmericaitself.TheU.S.shouldhavelearnedfromitsdisastrouslytradeprotectionistpolicyof1930鈥攖axingsteelandaluminumalonedirectlyledtoasharpriseindomesticsteelpricesinthecountry,whichcausedanacrossthe-boardriseinproductioncostsandprices.Aftertheintroductionofcountermeasuresfromothercountries,affectedexportingindustriesoftheU.S.willfaceevenworseconditions.OnceSino-Americanbilateraltaxationisimposed,asinglesanctionagainstAmericanagriculturalproductscoulddecimatetheeconomiesofanynumberofspecificU.S.states.
TheU.S.鈥檆hoicetorestrictimportswilldamageAmericanexportsandadditionalimporttariffswillleadtoariseindomesticpricesandaffectdomesticconsumerspending.WiththeriseindomesticpricesintheU.S.,theFederalReservewillbeforcedtoraiseinterestratestoappreciatethedollar.AppreciationwillresultinalargedeficitintheU.S.currencyaccount,whichwillinturnsuckthelifeoutoftherecoveryprocessoftheU.S.economy.Whenanewroundofcrisesarrives,Trump鈥檚confidencewilllikelyevaporatequickly.
Attheendoftheday,theU.S.willinevitablybecaughtinmoretroubles.IfTrumpre-raisesonhisconventionalthinkingastheself-proclaimedmasternegotiatorhasbeenpronetodo,theavailablemoveswillsoondevolvefromcallorraisetofoldandcashout.
Theauthorisvice-chairmanoftheChinaSocietyforWorldTradeOrganizationStudies.